Fernando Alarid-Escudero

Investigadores

Es profesor investigador de la División de Administración Pública y miembro del Programa de Política de Drogas del CIDE-Región Centro. Es miembro también del Sistema Nacional de Investigadores Nivel II. El Dr. Alarid-Escudero tiene una larga trayectoria en la investigación y desarrollo de modelos de decisión utilizados en prevención, control y tratamiento de distintas enfermedades crónicas e infecciosas.

Curriculum Vitae (PDF)

Publicaciones relevantes

Proyectos

Subcontract Principal Investigator, “Comparative Modeling of Effective Policies for Colorectal Cancer Control”’ (with Ann Zauber, PI), Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (National Cancer Insti- tute prime) U01CA253913, 09/2020–08/2025.

Subcontract Principal Investigator, “Comparative Modeling to Inform Cervical Cancer Control Poli- cies” (with Jane Kim, PI), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (National Cancer Institute prime) U01CA253912, 09/2020–08/2025.

Co-Principal Investigator, “Promoting better public policies on security and risk reduction for the imprisoned population in the context of COVID-19”, Open Society Foundation (OSF) through the Drug Policy Program, 10/2020–09/2021.

Principal Investigator, “Establishing a dynamic decision-making system in real-time on the COVID- 19 pandemic in Mexico City”, awarded by the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM) COVID- 19 Decision Modeling Initiative (CDMI), 08/2020–11/2020.

Principal Investigator, “Establishing a dynamic decision-making system in real-time on the COVID- 19 pandemic in Mexico and Latin America”, Open Society Foundation (OSF), 04/2020–03/2021.

Principal Investigator, “Expanding Stanford-CIDE COSMO Modeling Framework and Methodologies for COVID-19 Epidemic Modeling across Diverse Geographies and Populations”, Stanford University, 04/2020–09/2021.

Principal Investigator, “Proposal to establish a dynamic real-time decision-making system on the COVID19 pandemic in the state of Hidalgo, Model SC-COSMO”, Secretary of Health of the Govern- ment of the State of Hidalgo, 04/2020–07/2020.

Co-Principal Investigator, “Structural changes in the dynamics of lethal violence in Mexico over time”, Drug Policy Program, 02/2020–01/2021.

Investigator, “Improve CISNET Model Transparency and Accessibility” (Administrative Supplements to Existing NIH Grants and Cooperative Agreements, Parent Admin Supp – Clinical Trial Optional, with Chin Hur, PI), Columbia University (National Cancer Institute prime) PA-18-591 (supplement to U01CA199336-05), 08/2019–07/2020.

Subcontract Principal Investigator, “Microsimulation Modeling to Compare the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Nondrug Interventions to Manage Clinical Symptoms in Racially/Ethnically Diverse Persons with Dementia" (with Eric Jutkowitz, PI), National Institute On Aging of the Na- tional Institutes of Health R01AG060871, 07/2019–06/2022.

Investigator, “Comparative Modeling of Colorectal Cancer: Informing Health Policies and Prioritiz- ing Future Research”’ (with Ann Zauber, PI), Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (National Cancer Institute prime) U01CA199335, 09/2015–08/2020.

Investigator, “Comparative Modeling to Inform Cervical Cancer Control Policies” (with Jane Kim, PI), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (National Cancer Institute prime) U01CA199334, 09/2015–08/2020.

Co-Investigator, “Cost-effectiveness analysis of antiretroviral treatment initiation strategies in the presence of efavirenz resistance in HIV-positive individuals in Mexico” (with Eva Enns, PI), Center for Global Health and Social Responsibility, University of Minnesota, 08/2018–07/2019.

Co-Investigator, “Cost-effectiveness analysis of UNEMES-EC model for multidisciplinary care of pa- tients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2” (with Sandra G. Sosa Rubí, PI), CONACYT, 05/2017– 02/2020.

Co-Principal Investigator, “Cost-effectiveness of midwife-led care for low-risk pregnancies,” (with Katy B. Kozhimannil, PhD, Co-PI), California Health Care Foundation. 12/2017–12/2018.

Principal Investigator, “Extend HEEMOD to Encompass Value-Based Price (VBP) & Value of Information (VOI) Analyses,” Policy Analysis, Inc. 09/2017–12/2017.

Principal Investigator, “Cost-effectiveness of H. pylori screen-and-treat strategies for preventing gastric cancer and ulcers in Mexico,” Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship, University of Minnesota. 09/2016–05/2017.

Tesistas

PhD’s advisor

Lidia Sarahi Peña Ruiz, “Association between breastfeeding and intelligence in school-aged girls and boys and estimation of economic benefits in adult life in Mexico.” PhD in Population Nutrition, 2022 (expected), Mexican School of Public Health.

PhD theses committees

Fernando Saldaña García, “Mathematical modeling approaches in epidemiology: within host-dynamics, control strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis.” PhD in Applied Mathematics, 2020, Center for Re- search in Mathematics (CIMAT)

Master’s students advisor

Hirvin Azael Diaz Zepeda, “Covid-19 excess morality and a cost-effective analysis of different treat- ments.” Master of Science in Methods for the Analysis of Public Policies (METPOL), 2021, Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE)

Diego Rodolfo Sánchez Rojas, “The effect of the Covid-19 epidemic in Mexico on labor market dy- namics and the decision to implement a policy.” Master of Science in Methods for the Analysis of Public Policies (METPOL), 2021, Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE)

Gabriela Arroyo Carmona, “Remittances and the labor market: a microsimulation analysis for Mex- ico (2020-2050).” Master of Science in Methods for the Analysis of Public Policies (METPOL), 2021, Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE)

Antonio Guzmán Fernández, “Municipality-level variation of Covid-19 mortality in Mexico: A Hier- archical analysis.” Master of Administration and Public Policy (MAPP), 2021, Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE)

Mario Enrique Carranza Barragán, “Temporal analysis of violence in Mexico during the period 2006- 2011 based on hierarchical Bayesian models.” Master of Science in Probability and Statistics, 2021, Center for Research in Mathematics (CIMAT)

Daniel Alejandro Pedraza Arizmendi, “Cost-benefit analysis of the model UNEMES-EC in a period of 10 years (mid-term) and 20 years (long-term) in Mexico.” MSc Health Economics, 2019, Mexican School of Public Health

Master’s and undergraduate theses committees

Rodolfo Larios Alvarez, “Low-risk delivery care for doctors and midwives: A cost-effectiveness analy- sis.” MPH Health Administration, 2018, Mexican School of Public Health

Caleb Easterly, “Mathematical Modeling of Human Papillomavirus: Questioning Assumptions About Sexual Behavior.” BA Applied Mathematics, 2017, Macalester College

José Luis Alcántara Zamora, “Cost-effectiveness of care of patients with diabetes mellitus in Unidades Médicas De Especialidades En Enfermedades Crónicas (UNEMES-EC).” MSc Health Economics, 2016, Mexican School of Public Health

Carlos Guerrero, “Analysis of the decisions of initiating and ceasing smoking in Mexico: a Behavioral Economics approach.” MSc Health Economics, 2014, Mexican School of Public Health

Juan Jose Herrera Patiño, “Impact of regulating the sale of antibiotics in Latin America: Interrupted time series.” MSc Health Economics, 2014, Mexican School of Public Health

Descargas

Estudios

Distinciones

Difusión

Congresos

2020

WORKSHOPS Y CURSOS CORTOS

Decision Modeling for Public Health, CDC Prevention Effectiveness Fellowship Program. A 7-day virtual workshop (November)

Hands-on Model Calibration in R, 42nd Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Virtual meeting (short course)

Decision Modeling in R: A 5-day course, Virtual workshop led by The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada (July)

Advanced Decision Modeling in R: A 3-day workshop, Virtual workshop led by The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada (April)

PRESENTACIONES EN CONFERENCIAS

“Accounting for Household Transmission Dynamics in Realistic Epidemic Models” (North American top-rated abstract)

◦ 42nd Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Virtual meeting, 2020

“Establishing a Dynamic Decision-Making System in Real-Time on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico City”, presented at the P anel Discussion 1: Decisional context – how to work with different types of decision makers

◦ 42nd Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Virtual meeting, 2020

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

Evaluation of COVID-19 mitigation strategies in Mexico City: A mathematical model-based health policy analysis

◦ International Health Institute (IHI) Global Health Conversation, Brown University, 2020 Policy Comparison of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Mexico City Metropolitan Area: An SC-COSMO model-based analysis

◦ 1st International Forum of Applied Mathematics, Guerrero Autonomous University, Chilpancingo de los Bravo, Guerrero, Mexico, 2020

He Who Hesitates is Lost: Creation of the SC–COSMO Working Group and Modeling COVID–19 in Mexico

◦ CISNET annual meeting, Virtual Meeting, 2020 CISNET exemplar model

◦ CISNET mid-year meeting, Virtual Meeting, 2020
Addressing disparities in cervical cancer using the CISNET CERVIX Collaborative (C3) model

◦ CISNET mid-year meeting, Virtual Meeting, 2020 Deep-Bayesian Artificial Neural Network (D-BANN) Metamodel

◦ CISNET mid-year meeting, Virtual Meeting, 2020 Modeling Gastric Cancer Into The 21st Century

◦ 1st Gastric Cancer Summit at Stanford, Stanford University, CA, 2020

◦ Stanford Health Policy Seminar, Stanford University, CA, 2020

2019

WORKSHOPS Y CURSOS CORTOS

Decision analysis and simulation modeling to evaluate public policies, 1st School of Statistical Modeling for Social Sciences (EMECS), CIMAT, Aguascalientes.

Hands-on Model Calibration in R, 41st Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Portland, OR (short course)

Optimal Research Design Using Value of Information, 41st Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Portland, OR (short course)

Cost-Effectiveness and Decision Modeling using R, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, MN, USA.

Cost-Effectiveness and Decision Modeling using R, Escuela de Salud Pública de la Universidad de Chile, Santiago de Chile, Chile.

The Use of Decision Analysis in Drug Policy, Diploma in Drug Policy, Health and Human Rights 2019, Center for Research and teaching in Economics, Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes, Mexico (guest lecture)

Introduction to Decision Modeling and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico (half-day workshop)

PRESENTACIONES EN CONFERENCIAS

“‘Dampack’: A Flexible R Package for Analyzing and Visualizing Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Results”

◦ 41st Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Portland, OR, 2019

“Optimizing Adjuvant Treatment for Stage II Colon Cancer: A Biomarker-based Cost- effectiveness Analysis”

◦ INFORMS Healthcare Conference, Cambridge, MA, 2019

“Optimizing HIV Treatment Initiation in the Context of Resistance in Mexico”

◦ INFORMS Healthcare Conference, Cambridge, MA, 2019

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

CISNET CERVIX Collaborative (C3) model overview

◦ CISNET annual meeting, Bethesda, MA, 2019 “Quantification and Valuation of Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Decision Models”

◦ Academic seminar at the Center for Research in Mathematics (CIMAT), Guanajuato, Guanajuato, Mexico, 2019

“The recommended methods for decision making in the presence of uncertainty are not ideal. Could we do better?”

◦ CIDE’s academic seminar, 2019

“The use of high-performance computing for uncertainty quantification and value of information analysis”

INFOTEC’s weekly seminar, 2019

2018

WORKSHOPS Y CURSOS CORTOS

Hands-on Model Calibration in R, 40th Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Montreal, Canada (short course) [Awarded best short course of the academic meeting]

Value of Information Analysis using Regression Metamodeling, 40th Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Montreal, Canada (short course)

Cost-Effectiveness and Decision Modeling using R, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, MN, USA.

Decision Modeling using R, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands 2018 Decision Modeling using R, Merck, North Wales, PA

Decision Modeling using R, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada (April) 2018 Decision Modeling using R, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

PRESENTACIONES EN CONFERENCIAS

“Quantification and Valuation of Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Decision Models”

◦ 40th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Montreal, Canada, 2018

“Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Population Screening and Treatment of Helicobacter pylori in the Setting of Antibiotic Resistance in Mexico”

◦ 40th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Montreal, Canada, 2018

“Management of Care for Low-Risk Pregnancies By Midwives Vs. Obstetricians: A Decision Analy- sis”

◦ 40th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Montreal, Canada, 2018 (poster)

“The DARTH initiative: Promoting the Use of Open-Source Software in Medical Decision Making”

◦ 17th Biennial European Conference of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Leiden, The Netherlands, June 2018

“Open-source software for building health economic models”

◦ ISPOR 2018, Baltimore, MD

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

CISNET Programmers Group webinar, 2018

“The DARTH initiative: Promoting the Use of Open-Source Software in Medical Decision Making,”

Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 2018
Queen’s University, Belfast, Northern Ireland, 2018 [A webinar part of Northern Ireland’s ISPOR Student Chapter]

“Value of Information analysis of CRC screening strategies using the SimCRC model,”

◦ CISNET mid-year meeting, Ann Arbor, MI, 2018 “Value of Information Analysis: The why, what and how”

◦ CISNET Junior Investigators webinar, 2018

2017

WORKSHOPS Y CURSOS CORTOS

Value of Information Analysis using Regression Metamodeling, 39th Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Pittsburgh, PA (short course)

Decision Modeling using R, 39th Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Pittsburgh, PA (short course)

Decision Modeling using R, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada (February and October)

PRESENTACIONES EN CONFERENCIAS

“Population-Level Antibiotic Treatment Policies in the Setting of Antibiotic Resistance: A Mathe- matical Model of Mass Treatment of Helicobacter pylori in Mexico”

◦ Epidemics6 - International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics, Sitges, Barcelona, Spain, 2017

◦ 39th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Pittsburgh, PA, 2017 (top rated abstract)

“Non-Identifiability in Model Calibration and Implications for Medical Decision Making”

◦ 39th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Pittsburgh, PA, 2017

“A Hybrid Assessment to Rank Strategies in the Presence of Uncertainty”

◦ 39th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Pittsburgh, PA, 2017 (poster)

“CDX2 Biomarker Testing and Adjuvant Therapy for Stage II Colon Cancer: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis”

◦ 39th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Pittsburgh, PA, 2017 (poster)

“Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate the force of infection of Helicobacter pylori in Mexico: Ev- idence from a national survey”

◦ 50th Annual meeting of the Society for Epidemiologic Research, Seattle, WA, 2017 (poster) “A Mathematical model of H. pylori infection and resistance in Mexico”

◦ Doctoral Research Showcase, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 2017 (poster)

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

“Exploring the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori screening and treating strategies in Mexico in the setting of antibiotic resistance: A modeling study”

National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico, 2017
National Institute of Health Sciences and Nutrition "Salvador Zubirán", Mexico City, Mexico 2017
National institute of Respiratory Diseases, Mexico City, Mexico 2017 “Calibration methods: An overview and a case study of cancer relative survival”

◦ Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, 2017

◦ CISNET Junior Investigators webinar, 2017

“Characterizing uncertainty of deep model parameters of the SimCRC model,” CISNET mid-year meeting, Stanford, CA, 2017

“Comparative effectiveness of H. pylori antibiotic treatment strategies in Mexico: A simulation model approach,” University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Health Policy and Management Semi- nar Series, Minneapolis, MN, 2017

“Opportunity Cost of Non-Rigorous & Non-Transferable Research: Implications for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis,” University of Minnesota School of Public Health Research Day, Minneapolis, MN, 2017

“Statistical methods to inform a dynamic transmission model of Helicobacter pylori in Mexico”

◦ Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA) Massachussets General Hospital (MGH) , PCORT Seminars, Boston, MA, 2017

◦ The Center for Evidence Synthesis in Health, Brown University School of Public Health, Provi- dence, RI, 2017

“Simplifying Value of Information Analysis With A Gaussian Approximation Approach,” The Canadian Centre for Health Economics (CCHE), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada, 2017 (co-presented with Hawre Jalal, PhD)

2016

WORKSHOPS Y CURSOS CORTOS

Value of Information Analysis using Regression Metamodeling, 38th Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Vancouver, Canada (short course)

Decision Modeling using R, 38th Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Vancouver, Canada (short course)

Introduction to R, 38th Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Vancouver, Canada (pre-meeting course)

Introduction to R, Annual European Meeting of SMDM, London, UK (pre-meeting course)

Decision Modeling using R, Annual European Meeting of SMDM, London, UK (short course)

PRESENTACIONES EN CONFERENCIAS

“On the opportunity cost of non-rigorous or irrelevant research: Implications for economic evaluation”

◦ 38th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Vancouver, Canada, 2016

“Bayesian prediction of prevalence of human papillomavirus in young girls in the US from aggregated data using exponentially damped polynomial models”

◦ 38th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Vancouver, Canada, 2016 (poster)

“Comparison of calibration methods for natural history simulation models”

38th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Vancouver, Canada, 2016
16th Biennial European Conference of the Society for Medical Decision Making, London, UK, June 2016 [Lee B. Lusted student award winner]

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

“Probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Characterizing parameter uncertainty,” CISNET annual meeting, Rockville, MD, 2016

“A graphical representation of optimal sample size by willingness-to-pay threshold: Introducing the curve of optimal sample size (COSS),” CISNET Training Component: Training the next generation of modelers, CISNET mid-year meeting, Boston, MA, 2016

2015

WORKSHOPS Y CURSOS CORTOS

Value of Information Analysis using Regression Metamodeling, 37th Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, St. Louis, MO, USA (short course)

PRESENTACIONES EN CONFERENCIAS

“Introducing the curve of optimal sample size (COSS): A graphical representation of optimal sample size by willingness-to-pay threshold”

◦ 37th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, St. Louis, MO,2015 (poster) [Lee B. Lusted student award winner]

“Calibration of piecewise Markov models using a Bayesian change-point analysis through an iterative convex optimization algorithm”

ISPOR 5th Latin America Conference, Santiago, Chile, 2015 (poster)
INFORMS Healthcare Conference, Nashville, TN, 2015
36th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Miami, FL, 2014 (poster) [Lee B. Lusted student award winner]

“Estimating relative survival for screen- and symptom-detected colorectal cancer patients”

◦ 19th Minnesota Health Services Research Conference, Minneapolis, MN, 2015

2014

WORKSHOPS Y CURSOS CORTOS

Sensitivity Analysis using Linear Regression Metamodeling, 36th Annual North American Meeting of SMDM, Miami, FL, USA (short course)

PRESENTACIONES EN CONFERENCIAS

“Potential bias associated with modeling the effectiveness of treatment using an overall hazard ratio”

◦ 36th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Miami, FL, 2014 (poster)

“Health care decision making in Mexico: The role of health technology assessment and economic evaluation”

◦ 36th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Miami, FL, 2014 (poster)

“Trade-offs between efficacy and cardiac toxicity of adjuvant chemotherapy in early-stage breast cancer patients: Do competing risks matter?”

18th Minnesota Health Services Research Conference, Minneapolis, MN, 2014 [Second place student paper competition]
AcademyHealth Annual Research Meeting, San Diego, CA, 2014 (poster)

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

“Disentangling the differences between screen & symptom detected cancers in SEER relative sur- vival,” CISNET mid-year meeting, Minneapolis, MN, 2014

“Health care decision making in Mexico: The role of HTA and economic evaluation,” Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment Collaborative (THETA), THETA Rounds, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada, 2014

2013

PRESENTACIONES EN CONFERENCIAS

35th Annual North American Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Baltimore,MD, 2013 (poster)
4th Annual Masonic Cancer Center Research Symposium, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 2013

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

“Trade-offs between efficacy and cardiac toxicity of adjuvant chemotherapy in early-stage breast can- cer patients. Do competing risks matter?”, Cancer Prevention and Control Seminar, Masonic Cancer Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 2013

2012

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

“Mexican migrants to the U.S.: What happens to the health insurance of families staying behind?”, Seminar on Evaluation of Health Programs and Policies, INSP/Mexican School of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico, 2012

2011

WORKSHOPS Y CURSOS CORTOS

Workshop on Impact Evaluation of Population, Health and Nutrition Programs. MEASURE Evaluation, INSP, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

Advanced Monitoring and Evaluation Workshop for the Caribbean Region: Assessing the Effectiveness and Impact of HIV & AIDS Programmes 2011, Montego Bay, Jamaica

Workshop on longitudinal data analysis and program evaluation, National Institute for Educational Assessment and Evaluation (INEE), Mexico City, Mexico

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

“Oportunidades and urban population’s health: Trend analysis on health indicators (2002-2009)”, Seminar on Evaluation of Health Programs and Policies, INSP/Mexican School of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico, 2011

2009

CHARLAS COMO INVITADO

“Mobile populations and prevention of HIV & STIs”, Seminar on Evaluation of Health Programs and Policies, INSP/Mexican School of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico, 2009

2007

PRESENTACIONES EN CONFERENCIAS

“Registro de señales de EEG para aplicaciones de interfaz cerebro computadora (ICC) basado en potenciales evocados visuales de estado estacionario (PEVEE)”

◦ Latin-American Congress of Biomedical Engineer (CLAIB), Margarita Island, Venezuela, 2007